Who will die on ‘The White Lotus’?

The White Lotus, HBO’s excellent satire taking place on a resort in Hawaii, begins with a chilling revelation. In the show’s opening scene, a couple waiting for their flight back to Honolulu pesters honeymooner Shane (Jake Lacy) about his vacation. Turns out he stayed at the White Lotus resort where – gasp! – someone was just killed.

Before we get any details about who died, the episode flashes back to a week earlier and introduces its cast of characters in what feels like the opening to a classic whodunnit. We meet several demanding vacationers and the high-strung resort staff who must satisfy their every need. Tensions are high, and they only escalate further in the second episode. There’s a real sense that the White Lotus is a powder keg ready to explode. And explode it will, since someone dies within the week.

Now that the first two episodes of The White Lotus have primed us on the show’s characters and their relationships, it’s time to grab some cork board and string and get to theorizing about who will die and how. Sure, it’s morbid, but we’ve got to get to the bottom of this somehow. Here’s a ranking of The White Lotus characters, on a scale of “100% alive” to “100% going to die.”

9. Shane

In a show filled with insufferable characters, entitled honeymooner Shane is one of the worst. His obsession with getting the perfect honeymoon suite (even though his current room is luxurious as all get out) is obviously going to ruin his vacation, as well as his new marriage to Rachel (Alexandra Daddario).

Shane may be horrible, but he’s also the only main character in the first airport scene, meaning that he is the only person who is completely safe from death. However, the show’s choice to focus on him in the opening scene implies that he must have had something to do with the death – or some personal connection to the deceased. That means that characters closely linked to Shane are in more danger. What we’re learning here is that people should just get away from Shane, which seems like a valuable life lesson.

8. Belinda

Spa manager Belinda (Natasha Rothwell) just wants to do her job. She doesn’t want to get caught up in guests’ business if she can help it, but Tanya (Jennifer Coolidge) has grown attached to her thanks to her effective treatments. As of now, their storyline feels more removed from Shane’s, and Belinda hasn’t gotten too involved with his drama yet. It’s a smart move, and it means she probably won’t die.

7. Quinn

Like Belinda, Quinn (Fred Hechinger) hasn’t interacted with Shane much, which puts him in a good place in terms of not dying. He actually hasn’t interacted much with anyone, preferring to play video games. The biggest risk to him right now is his upcoming scuba certification and dive with his father Mark (Steve Zahn), but The White Lotus doesn’t seem like a show where a scuba accident would be the payoff to its biggest mystery. Or maybe that’s what the show wants us to think…

6. Olivia and Paula

It feels wrong to split Olivia (Sydney Sweeney) and Paula (Brittany O’Grady) up, seeing as they’re almost always together. Despite unnerving Rachel in the first episode, they haven’t directly crossed paths with Shane yet, so it’s unlikely either of them will die. However, tensions are brewing between them, as Olivia seemed to be a bit jealous when Paula snuck off to meet a hotel employee. Could this jealousy lead to murder? Probably not, but you never know.

5. Mark

The good news: Mark doesn’t have testicular cancer! The bad news: He’s currently processing the revelation that his father led a double life, which is enough to put a downer on any vacation. On top of that, his wife Nicole (Connie Britton) had a very tense poolside encounter with Rachel, who then complained about her to Shane. There’s a chance this could lead to a confrontation between Mark and Shane, but it’s unlikely, since Mark is dealing with his own personal issues and Shane is still on his quest for a slightly larger suite. Mark is on the safe side… for now.

4. Nicole

Honestly, it seems like Nicole could implode from stress at any second, what with her high-profile job and dysfunctional family getting in the way of her vacation. Her verbal takedown of Rachel and her “hatchet job” piece about women in tech is proof of how intense she is about her work – and how venomous she can be if someone gets on her bad side. The tension between her and Rachel can only lead to disaster. Whether that disaster is death remains to be seen.

3. Tanya

With her mother’s recent passing and her subsequent grief, it’s clear that Tanya is going through a lot. She uses Belinda’s treatments to help cope, but she also enjoys striking up conversations with strangers and getting into their business. Based on what we’ve seen of her so far, it’s highly likely she could get mixed up in the escalating Shane situation, which could lead to her untimely demise. Hopefully that doesn’t happen though, because it would be very disrespectful to kill off Jennifer Coolidge.

2. Rachel

Rachel is the most obvious candidate for being dead. She and Shane go to the White Lotus for their honeymoon, yet Shane is alone in the airport scene at the start of the first episode. Something must have happened in the week between their arrival at the resort and Shane’s departure. Could it have been… murder? Or is Rachel’s absence in the airport opening just a massive red herring? If she isn’t dead, here’s hoping she broke things off with Shane, because it’s very clear from these first episodes that things will not work out between them in the long term.

1. Armand

Resort manager Armand (Murray Bartlett) and Shane have been locked in battle from the moment Shane complained about his and Rachel’s room. This isn’t your typical employee vs. customer clash: Shane’s continued complaints wore Murray down to the point that he used drugs after five years of sobriety. It’s clear that the two of them are headed for a showdown of epic proportions, and since we know Shane is still alive by the end of the week, things are not looking good for Armand.

Wild card: Kitty

Nothing like a late arrival to shake things up: Shane’s mother Kitty (Molly Shannon) has yet to appear at the White Lotus resort, but she does show up eventually according to the season preview. Her death would make a lot of sense considering Shane’s emotional state at the airport and the fact that the body is also on his flight. Aside from Armand and Rachel, she is character who is most likely to die.

The White Lotus is streaming on HBO and will run for six episodes. New episodes drop on HBO Sundays at 9 p.m. EST.