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2020 Democratic candidates would benefit if backbenchers dropped out

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The bloated Democratic primary field is quickly narrowing down, and the inevitable spate of dropouts will likely benefit the top-tier of the field and enable them to consolidate more support.

In the past two weeks alone, three candidates called it quits after failing to meet the stricter requirements to qualify for the September and October DNC debates, which necessitated candidates to earn 130,000 individual donors and reach 2% in four DNC-approved polls.

Former Gov. John Hickenlooper dropped out to run for US Senate in Colorado, Gov. Jay Inslee quit the race to run for a third term as governor of Washington, and Rep. Seth Moulton, who also left the race to run for re-election in Massachusetts.

To help make sense of where all these candidates stand relative to eachother, Insider has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll. You can download every poll here, down to the individual respondent data.

Read more about how the Insider 2020 Democratic primary tracker works.

At this point in the race, we’re mainly interested in using our polling to figure out:

  • What percentage of Democratic voters are familiar with each candidate in the first place.
  • How Democrats rate each candidate’s chances of beating President Donald Trump in the general election.
  • If a given candidate were to drop out of the race, who that candidate’s supporters would flock to next.

Here’s a look at which top-tier Democratic candidates will benefit the most from 15 lower and mid-tier contenders dropping out, according to Insider polling.

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